20k Ethereum This Year
Interestingly enough, Ethereum is exactly mirroring the 2017 bull run of Bitcoin. That should from here lead us to top out at about $20,000. Alright, everybody. I’m very pleased to be joined by Raoul Pal. He’s the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision Finance. And just so everybody knows, I’ve watched some videos on there that I feel like weren’t even that much about trading or finance but very informative videos about China, about the world events. I just think what you do is amazing. So first and foremost, welcome to the show. It’s great to be here finally, right? – It’s taken us a while to get this sorted out. – It has been a while for sure.
I would like to have you on six months ago, but, you know. A few months ago might not have been as interesting while prices were down, – but things are looking favorable right now. – Yeah. So let’s get started. You’ve made a lot of comments on Bitcoin, a lot of comments on Ethereum. A little bit later on, probably for a second video, we’ll be talking about a lot of the other altcoins. I really want to focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum for this one. So let’s start with Bitcoin. First and foremost, what are your– you know, just general thoughts on the value of Bitcoin, where we’re at in the market. What are your observations right now? You know, I have been following this bull market in Bitcoin versus 2013, – and they map each other really well. – Uh-huh. Right? So there’s a number of things I look at. I look at like the stock-to-flow model that PlanB gives out. We kind of all look at that and think, “Yeah, it should keep going up.” Then I start looking at like network effects stuff. You know, how many wallet addresses with nonzero balance in them, stuff like that. A nice log chart you can see where the trend is. And then I just map it against the previous bull market, – and it’s pretty much mirroring 2013. – Yeah.
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And so I kind of knew roughly where this low of this mid-cycle correction was. It kind of worked out. And now it should start moving significantly higher very quickly. So we might have a bit of sideways first, but, you know, we’ve already done a little bit of that, and then the next phase is three months of face-ripping rallies. – Yeah. So– – So, you know, I think the end of the year, you know, because that’s what everybody wants to know. You know, I think the worst case is probably $200,000 and the best case is $400K+, depends whether the cycle gets extended, – which I think there’s a probability of. – Yeah. So I’m going to disagree with you on that actually. I’m going to say everything you said lines up with what I was saying at the beginning of the bull run. Like, in the beginning, if we go all the way back to December 2019, I was making predictions on where I thought Bitcoin was going to go. You know, I definitely saw it going at least to $225,000 and then, you know, as the price has moved much higher at the beginning of the year, I was thinking, “Well, we could clear the stock-to-flow model, go to $320K,” things like that. I believe that we’re going to only see for Bitcoin, we only have about four or five, maybe six weeks tops left. I think this thing’s going to rip very fast. But I think that there’s going to be controls put on. I’m really interested to get your opinions because I feel like for me personally, over the last few months, like, my eyes to what really happens in the world of markets and finance, and, you know, you’re a former Goldman Sachs– what was your title at Goldman Sachs? I started and ran the hedge fund sales business at Goldman Sachs, and then I ran a big hedge fund for one of the biggest hedge fund firms in the world as well. – Yeah. Now, I think you’re– – From a– I think you’re a good guy. I think you’re a good guy, and I’ve said this a lot. I don’t lump you in with a lot of the traditional finance people that I don’t like because I just feel like there’s too much control from the hedge funds, from, you know, what we call the financial cartel. As a person that was in the belly of the beast at some point working for Goldman Sachs, do you not see that the financial cartel, the powers that be, the people that control the markets in the world, that they don’t want Bitcoin to go to those high numbers. Because if Bitcoin goes to $400,000, that would put the stock market in very, very serious trouble because why would someone invest in the stock market compared to crypto with those kinds of returns when now we know institutional money, big money, is in play here? So I’ll give you the inside track. They’re all building out crypto teams. They’re all trying to offer it to their clients. And it is coming and they don’t want to stop it because they want to make money from it. So what I’ve always been saying to people is this is the opportunity for the little guy to frontrun Wall Street. Don’t fear them. They won’t stop it because they too can make money. So, therefore, frontrun them. So I don’t think it gets stopped. Of course, there’s going to be more regulation over time, but Bitcoin? Not a great deal more regulation. There will be an ETF out. You know, I hear that through lots of back channels, from a lot of people. It’s coming. So I am much less concerned by that than you might be. I think stuff like DeFi? – Okay, that’s going to be a different battle. – Yeah. Bitcoin? They’re involved. They’re building out teams. They’re offering it to clients. They want to build products around it. They want to make money too. And I’ve been saying all the way through, – best thing to do is own it before they do. – Yeah. – And then we get to make money when they come in. – Yeah. So I certainly am with you on believing– I know you made many statements before about a $1 million to $5 million Bitcoin over the next, you know, 10 years, whatever it is. I’m a big proponent of that. I believe there’s virtually a 0% chance that Bitcoin is not, at some point, at least $1 million. I believe that’s closer to eight years away at this point. You know, I think we’re probably two cycles away from getting to $1 million. So I agree with everything you’re saying. I see that these people are building out teams, and they’re building out crypto teams, but my argument is just I think in the short term for the rest of this bull run, they’re going to kind of throw the brakes on at some point because they don’t want it to get too out of control too quickly. But eventually, it will be out of control. Eventually, those prices will go up much higher. So, you’re also extremely bullish on Ethereum. I know you’ve said a lot of times, you know. You’ve made many comments about kind of Bitcoin versus Ethereum. I’m a huge proponent of Ethereum. We call ourselves the official Ethereum channel here on YouTube because there’s nobody that can tell us we can’t say that. It’s decentralized, am I right? So I want to know, like, your thoughts. I know you are big on the network effects. Like, what is your general, you know, kind of view on Ethereum right now versus Bitcoin? So look at the chart, the ETH-Bitcoin cross. It’s forming this little wedge pattern short term. I think it’s going to break that any day now. Then the next move is to 0.08. That is the big level. It’s the massive kind of resistance level, and if it goes to that, you know, that cross is going to move up at least 100% or more. So, basically, my view is that ETH is going to dramatically outperform Bitcoin. I mean, already this year, – you know, ETH’s up 350% and Bitcoin’s less than 100%. – It always outperforms Bitcoin. – Yes. Particularly this point in the cycle, right? – Yeah. So, on price action alone, I’m very bullish. On network model, it’s growing faster. More people are coming to the network faster than what happened to Bitcoin at the same stage with the same number of users. There’s more development going on it, more applications going on it. It’s kind of like– and they’re just reducing the supply with the, you know, EIP-1559 and then ETH 2.0. There’s like only 11% of all ETH left on exchanges. There’s no supply. And that’s going down every day. And demand is going up exponentially. And the only way– if you’ve got supply that’s capped and demand going up exponentially, the only thing that’s going to happen is price goes up exponentially. So I’m incredibly bullish with ETH. Was that a Bitcoin maximalist ringing the doorbell? – Is that what that was? – Yeah. They come to get– Luckily, our borders are closed, so they can’t come and get me. Yeah. That’s funny. It’s not funny that they’re closed, but it’s funny that they’re coming to get you. Now, you’ve actually– Let’s move on to talk about that a little bit. I want to move back to Ethereum here in a few moments. But what do you think about the Bitcoin maximalists? To me, they’re the most toxic people in crypto. It’s like you can’t have an opinion that anything else can be decent without those people coming after you. You’ve had some interactions. – What is your viewpoint on the Bitcoin maximalists’ opinion? – I split it down– I split it down to two groups. One is the group that has a belief that Bitcoin can become the monetary system of the world. You know, could it become the global currency? I understand that view. And it’s possible. But that view doesn’t mean that Ethereum or any of these other ecosystems, token ecosystems, don’t work within that, but the base layer of money could be Bitcoin. I get that. And some of those guys say, “Listen,” – and I think Jack Dorsey is one of those. – He is. He’s like, “I just want to focus on this,” – Yeah. “because that’s the bet I want to do,” “and I’m not going to insult you for what your view is because I just want to work on the money part.” Then there’s the other bunch that are insecure, worried that this is a competition between protocols and that they might lose. And that’s– in the past, people were bad to them, and therefore they need to fight for this. It’s ridiculous because I think this whole asset class goes from $2 trillion to $200 trillion. – Whew! – Everyone’s going to make money. – Yeah. – You can be a– You can be a chimp and make money in cryptocurrencies over a 5-year time horizon. – You just– it doesn’t require much work – Yeah. when something goes up a hundredfold. But to assume only Bitcoin should go up is crazy and it’s just insecurity. I’d love to actually meet who those people are. – My guess is they’re very young – Yeah. and very disenfranchised. Well, I think oftentimes that I try not to get into it with people on Twitter specifically because it’s not a winning battle for me. Even if I make great points and I destroy the other person, I’m giving that person– they’ll get followers because they argued with me and it became a thing. So I’ve learned like just not to attack people back even though it’s hard for me because I am like a fight not flight kind of guy. But, you know, the thing is with these people, I think the vast majority of these large disagreements, I think they were like 17-year-old kids. You know, I think it’s with kids. And what you got is you got adults arguing with kids not realizing they’re arguing with kids. I think if you realize you’re arguing with a kid that was in his keyboarding class sophomore year, you’re just going to be much more likely to be like, “Ah! I’m just going to leave this alone,” but because of the anonymity of all the avatars and things like that, you just don’t know who you’re really arguing with. – So it’s definitely– Yeah. – I just block people in there. – If they’re rude, I block them. – Yeah. They can disagree with me, and I’m happy all day. Unless they just stop being a dick, I just block them. There’s no reason not to, you know. That’s where we’re at, too. It’s just easier to remove those people and not have to deal with it. So, well, okay. So let’s– I agree. I think that’s great what you said about the two different camps of the maximalists. There are people that are like, “This just what I want to focus on,” and the other ones are just, you know, vitriolic and bitter for whatever reason. I don’t know why. Just looking for somebody to argue with. But I want to move back to Bitcoin versus Ethereum because, for me, I believe that there’s a chance that by the end of this run, if Ethereum is able to break that 0.08, and if it were to set an all-time high to where it was back in the day at 0.14, I mean, we could look at Ethereum approaching the Bitcoin market cap in this cycle. Do you think that is possible? I think approaching the Bitcoin market cap in this cycle is right. I don’t think it does it this time around, but it’s going to get close. Yeah. I think it’s got potential to basically meet it or maybe beat it, like, just by, I don’t know, $1 million and then gets shoved back down. I think it could be like neck and neck and then like boop, boop, and then go back down. It won’t be a permanent move during this cycle, I don’t think, by any stretch of imagination. No, I think that would probably be the cycle peak. How I think that this plays out is I think ETH is going to be the driver. So the Bitcoin ETF is the big driver left in Bitcoin. – Then it’s ETH 2.0. – Yeah. So, everybody who’s got ETH is going to stake it. So you go into 2.0, and then after that, a bunch of people are going to release their ETH – because they’ve staked it, – Yeah. and they’ll go and buy a house or a car or whatever they’ve done because they’ve made money out of it. My guess is that is going to be the peak of this whole thing. Even though ETH 2.0 is really bullish in the long run, just human behavior is you buy the rumor, sell the fact. And that’s probably the point when ETH might– as you said, it just might nab above Bitcoin market cap, and then the whole thing falls down again as we go into, you know, typical kind of bear market as everyone’s got over-optimistic. So, but you do believe– I think we probably agree on this. Next bull run, Ethereum permanently passes Bitcoin. – I think so. – Yeah. There’s no way– I mean, when you look at how much Ethereum does, I mean, the idea that Bitcoin can become the currency of the world, a currency that no one actually wants to spend because its No. 1 value is appreciating in value, it doesn’t make sense to me. But when you look at all the things that Ethereum does, you know, it can bring in the derivatives market, what it does with NFTs, what it does with DeFi. I mean, there’s really no shortage of opportunity for Ethereum. And there’s just so much there. Look. Maybe we’re wrong. Maybe they build a bunch of stuff on the Lightning Net layer. They build smart contracts out properly. But they’re a long way behind because you and I know, you go online, you buy anything– I mean, I commissioned an architect to build a Real Vision headquarters in CryptoVoxels. – I have to pay them in ETH. – Yeah. Bought an NFT, have to pay– ETH is money in the internet now. Whether anybody likes it or not. Bitcoin is not money. Nobody pays with Bitcoin because Bitcoin’s job is not to pay. Bitcoin’s job is not to tie transactions. Yes, you can use the network for lightning payments, but people don’t want to use Bitcoin. They just want to hold on to it. – And that’s okay. – Yeah. So let’s just wrap this part of this interview up with this. I want to know what is your price prediction– you already said, for Bitcoin, maybe $200K to $400K. What is your price prediction for Ethereum for the remainder of this bull cycle? And when do you think Ethereum tops out? So interestingly enough, Ethereum is exactly mirroring the 2017 bull run of Bitcoin. That should from here lead us to top out at about $20,000. – Wow. – Now, again, could we go further? It’s possible, but it’s exactly mirroring Bitcoin at this point. And you believe that this year? You think it will top out this year? Well, between now and kind of, you know, early next year. – You know, I don’t think necessarily we peak in December. – Yeah. Everyone’s kind of got that in their heads. I think this ETH 2.0 is probably going to be the top. So, whenever that comes out. We don’t even know yet. – Yeah. – But I’m assuming March. Yeah, I think that’s a good way of looking. I would– for me personally, I’m looking at Ethereum topping out somewhere between Halloween and Thanksgiving. So I believe in a faster timeline than a lot of people have. So we’ll see because the rubber is hitting the road. – We’re getting into the fall here pretty soon. – Here is a question for you then. How do you deal with that? So let’s say– have you–? – This is the hard thing about exiting some of this trade, right? – Yeah. If you want to take some chips off the table, when the hell do you do it? Because you’d feel stupid if it goes up, it doubles again from Halloween till the end of the year. How do you think you’re doing that? Yeah. So for me, it’s very easy. I weigh out the pain of regret. You know, you say to yourself– you know, like when we look at our portfolio here at BitBoy Crypto back in April, it was crushing it. It was doing so great. And then when you look at it the beginning of June, it was like that regret of not cashing out more over that time period, even though now it’s bounced back, the regret was strong. And so, for me, even if it goes to $400,000, and I start pulling my money out for Bitcoin around $90K to $95K to $100K, I’m going to be great with that. However, if that were to be the top and it were to drop back down to $10K, that regret would be much higher than the regret of cashing out and it’s still running. No one times the top of the market. You know this better than anybody. Nobody times it perfect. Nobody times the bottom perfect. You only can try to get as close as you can. So if we turn out– if it turns out to be wrong, and we’re not cashing out 100%. We’re looking at probably 80%, with the goal of buying back in. You know, still ultimately being extremely over leveraged in crypto. Then we’re just going to try and time the market, and if we get it exactly wrong, the remaining amount that we have would still go up a good bit, and we will get gains on that. Then we got fresh money sitting to the side because it will go down lower. I believe the price is next year at this time will be lower than they are right now pretty much across the board. So I believe we are heading towards a significant bear market. I know in the next part of this interview, we’re going to be talking about altcoins and some of the potential that you see in coins like Cardano and XRP. So, everybody, make sure to stay tuned for that. That will be out tomorrow. So, Raoul, thanks for joining us here for part 1. We’ll see in a few moments. To all the audience, drop your comments down below and let me know what you think. What is your profit-taking strategy? What do you believe about Bitcoin versus Ethereum? When will Ethereum pass Bitcoin, if ever? And are you a toxic maxi? If so, drop a dislike button down below. That’s all I got. Be blessed. BitBoy out. If you want to understand the future of everything, then understanding digital assets is the key. That’s why Real Vision launched Real Vision Crypto, the world’s premier cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel. Right now, Real Vision Crypto is helping more than 100,000 members understand the biggest wealth-creation opportunities in a generation. Five times a week, we bring you the most brilliant minds in finance and crypto including Vitalik Buterin, Gary Vaynerchuk, Caitlin Long, Bill Tai, Gavin Woods, the Winklevoss brothers and so many more. And best of all, Real Vision Crypto is completely free. To secure your free membership to Real Vision Crypto, please visit realvision.com/revolution today.